Cross Prediction
Anticipate market movements with the Cross Prediction AFL for Amibroker. This predictive tool, available for free download, utilizes crossovers to forecast potential trend changes. Backed by Amibroker data, the Cross Prediction AFL enhances the accuracy of trend predictions, offering traders a valuable edge in decision-making. Incorporate this tool into your strategy to refine your ability to predict market movements.
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_SECTION_BEGIN("Cross Prediction");
//Ct is the necessary tomorrows Close for a Ti3a, Ti3b touch.
//One of the most important side effects is the crosses of this Ct with the actual Close : They usually anticipate by 1 Day the Cross(Ti3a,Ti3b).
// Cross(Ti3a,Ti3b) predictions, by D. Tsokakis, April 2004
pa=10;pb=20;//pb should be higher than pa
Plot(C,"C",1,8);
// Ti3a
sa=0.8;fa=2/(pa+1);
e1a=EMA(C,pa);
e2a=EMA(e1a,pa);
e3a=EMA(e2a,pa);
e4a=EMA(e3a,pa);
e5a=EMA(e4a,pa);
e6a=EMA(e5a,pa);
c1a=-sa*sa*sa;
c2a=3*sa*sa+3*sa*sa*sa;
c3a=-6*sa*sa-3*sa-3*sa*sa*sa;
c4a=1+3*sa+sa*sa*sa+3*sa*sa;
Ti3a=c1a*e6a+c2a*e5a+c3a*e4a+c4a*e3a;
Plot(Ti3a,"Ti3("+WriteVal(pa,1.0)+")",colorBlue,1);
Ga=
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa^5+C2a*fa^4+C3a*fa^3+C4a*fa^2)*e1a+
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa^4+C2a*fa^3+C3a*fa^2+C4a*fa)*e2a+
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa^3+C2a*fa^2+C3a*fa+C4a)*e3a+
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa^2+C2a*fa+C3a)*e4a+
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa+C2a)*e5a+
(1-fa)*(C1a)*e6a;
GGa=C1a*fa^6+C2a*fa^5+C3a*fa^4+C4a*fa^3;
// Ti3b
sb=0.7;fb=2/(pb+1);
e1b=EMA(C,pb);
e2b=EMA(e1b,pb);
e3b=EMA(e2b,pb);
e4b=EMA(e3b,pb);
e5b=EMA(e4b,pb);
e6b=EMA(e5b,pb);
c1b=-sb*sb*sb;
c2b=3*sb*sb+3*sb*sb*sb;
c3b=-6*sb*sb-3*sb-3*sb*sb*sb;
c4b=1+3*sb+sb*sb*sb+3*sb*sb;
Ti3b=c1b*e6b+c2b*e5b+c3b*e4b+c4b*e3b;
Plot(Ti3b,"Ti3("+WriteVal(pb,1.0)+")",colorRed,1);
Gb=
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb^5+C2b*fb^4+C3b*fb^3+C4b*fb^2)*e1b+
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb^4+C2b*fb^3+C3b*fb^2+C4b*fb)*e2b+
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb^3+C2b*fb^2+C3b*fb+C4b)*e3b+
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb^2+C2b*fb+C3b)*e4b+
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb+C2b)*e5b+
(1-fb)*(C1b)*e6b;
GGb=C1b*fb^6+C2b*fb^5+C3b*fb^4+C4b*fb^3;
Ct=(Gb-Ga)/(GGa-GGb);
Plot(Ct,"Ct",2,1);
// Actual Cross signals
PlotShapes(shapeDownTriangle*Cross(tI3b,tI3a),colorPink);
PlotShapes(shapeUpTriangle*Cross(tI3a,tI3b),colorBlue);
// Prediction signals
PlotShapes(shapeDownArrow*Cross(Ct,C),colorRed);
PlotShapes(shapeUpArrow*Cross(C,Ct),colorBrightGreen);
//The statistics were better than expected:
//for Cross(Ti3(10),Ti3(20)) there was no False Signal for 3815 crosses of the N100 database from Jan2000 till Now.
//for Cross(Ti3(5),Ti3(10)) we have had 8323 crosses without any False Signal !!
//Explore for all quotations with
// False predictions
period1=5;period2=10;// period2 should be higher than period1
Plot(C,"C",1,8);
// Ti3_10
pa=period1;sa=0.8;fa=2/(pa+1);
e1a=EMA(C,pa);
e2a=EMA(e1a,pa);
e3a=EMA(e2a,pa);
e4a=EMA(e3a,pa);
e5a=EMA(e4a,pa);
e6a=EMA(e5a,pa);
c1a=-sa*sa*sa;
c2a=3*sa*sa+3*sa*sa*sa;
c3a=-6*sa*sa-3*sa-3*sa*sa*sa;
c4a=1+3*sa+sa*sa*sa+3*sa*sa;
Ti3a=c1a*e6a+c2a*e5a+c3a*e4a+c4a*e3a;
Plot(Ti3a,"Ti3a",colorBlue,1);
Ga=
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa^5+C2a*fa^4+C3a*fa^3+C4a*fa^2)*e1a+
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa^4+C2a*fa^3+C3a*fa^2+C4a*fa)*e2a+
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa^3+C2a*fa^2+C3a*fa+C4a)*e3a+
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa^2+C2a*fa+C3a)*e4a+
(1-fa)*(C1a*fa+C2a)*e5a+
(1-fa)*(C1a)*e6a;
GGa=C1a*fa^6+C2a*fa^5+C3a*fa^4+C4a*fa^3;
// Ti3_20
pb=period2;sb=0.7;fb=2/(pb+1);//pb should be higher than pa
e1b=EMA(C,pb);
e2b=EMA(e1b,pb);
e3b=EMA(e2b,pb);
e4b=EMA(e3b,pb);
e5b=EMA(e4b,pb);
e6b=EMA(e5b,pb);
c1b=-sb*sb*sb;
c2b=3*sb*sb+3*sb*sb*sb;
c3b=-6*sb*sb-3*sb-3*sb*sb*sb;
c4b=1+3*sb+sb*sb*sb+3*sb*sb;
Ti3b=c1b*e6b+c2b*e5b+c3b*e4b+c4b*e3b;
Plot(Ti3b,"Ti3b",colorRed,1);
Gb=
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb^5+C2b*fb^4+C3b*fb^3+C4b*fb^2)*e1b+
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb^4+C2b*fb^3+C3b*fb^2+C4b*fb)*e2b+
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb^3+C2b*fb^2+C3b*fb+C4b)*e3b+
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb^2+C2b*fb+C3b)*e4b+
(1-fb)*(C1b*fb+C2b)*e5b+
(1-fb)*(C1b)*e6b;
GGb=C1b*fb^6+C2b*fb^5+C3b*fb^4+C4b*fb^3;
Ct=(Gb-Ga)/(GGa-GGb);
Plot(Ct,"Ct",2,1);
PlotShapes(shapeDownTriangle*Cross(tI3b,tI3a),colorPink);
PlotShapes(shapeDownArrow*Cross(Ct,C),colorRed);
PlotShapes(shapeUpTriangle*Cross(tI3a,tI3b),colorBlue);
PlotShapes(shapeUpArrow*Cross(C,Ct),colorBrightGreen);
PredictionDN=Cross(Ct,C);PredictionUP=Cross(C,Ct);
CrossDN=Cross(Ti3b,Ti3a);CrossUP=Cross(Ti3a,Ti3b);
Filter=CrossDN OR CrossUP;
AddColumn(PredictionDN,"0barsDN",1.0);
AddColumn(Ref(PredictionDN,-1),"1barDN",1.0);
AddColumn(Ref(PredictionDN,-2),"2barsDN",1.0);
AddColumn(CrossDN AND NOT(predictionDN OR Ref(predictionDN,-1) OR Ref(predictionDN,-2)),"FalseUP",1.0);
AddColumn(PredictionUP,"0barsUP",1.0);
AddColumn(Ref(PredictionUP,-1),"1barUP",1.0);
AddColumn(Ref(PredictionUP,-2),"2barsUP",1.0);
AddColumn(CrossUP AND NOT(predictionUP OR Ref(predictionUP,-1) OR Ref(predictionUP,-2)),"FalseDN",1.0);
_SECTION_END();